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Trust the early move PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 20 September 2011 08:48

I watch the S&P futures because I get to see a very liquid security that trades 23 hours and 15 minutes a day 5 days a week.  By watching what happens in the overnight session it allows me to see patterns of market moves and helps me to formulate my thoughts before the actual 9:30 am open.

Early today, 6:05 am to be specific the ES Z1 (December Contract) made a quick move above R4 and then sold off into R3 where it resides as I write this blog.  I have learned to trust these early moves and use a higher high to confirm.  If I can buy near R3 then of course I can take the buy as one with a tight stop were it to break.

I see resistance in the 1215 to 1220 area today and 1265 longer term on a Weekly chart. 

 

 
Short Weakness PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 19 September 2011 08:31

With the futures pointing lower this morning it is important to understand that these large gap days are not ideal for me as a trend following, mean reversion trader.  This means that I must be patient and wait for the inevitable pullback into resistance that will happen at some point today and if it does not pullback to stay off the keys.

It is also very important to know which names could fall the hardest today and stay focused on shorting those names.  This list will include the banks that have been weak except for a two day rally last week that we called here at DTW.  Big cap tech has been strong so I will not try and short those names.  As the day moves on I will compile my list and make it available.

 
Time for a Selloff? PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 19 September 2011 06:39

The gyrations in the current market environment are incredible from day to day and week to week.  For traders like myself this presents some excellent opportunity to take advantage of strong trends albeit in both directions.

After having a 20% selloff followed by a 10% rally the market could be staring in the face of a lower high and a move back to test the lows from six sessions ago.  The pivots have been working very well so know the levels of importance, 1178 on the ESZ1 (S&P December Contract) is important support today.  European soveriegn debt is still a problem and Obama is going to put a bandaid on a broken leg with his deficit reduction plan today.

 
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